At its annual meeting held in Sacramento on February 5, 2025, the World Tomato Processing Committee (WPTC) predicted that the global tomato processing capacity would be 40.5 million tons in 2025 based on the information shared by member 

countries.

The tomato processing capacity in China in 2025 is estimated to be 6 million tons, which is significantly lower than the 10.45 million tons in 2024. This is mainly due to the low market price in 2024, which leads to the decrease of growers' willingness to plant.

Global supply and demand trend analysis Supply side: the output is declining, and the global tomato supply is tightening. 1. In 2025, the global tomato processing volume is estimated to be 40.5 million tons, which is 11.5% lower than the 45.8 million tons in 2024. 2. The production reduction in China is the most significant, with an estimated reduction of 4.45 million tons, mainly due to the decline in income of growers and the low planting willingness. 3. California is expected to reduce production by 1 million tons, but the final output still depends on the weather and field management. 4. Spain, Portugal and other European countries are expected to reduce production, mainly due to the reduction of planting area. 5. Iran is expected to resume growth, but the prospect is still uncertain due to political and economic instability.

Demand side: the market price is expected to rebound. 

1. The price of tomato paste is expected to increase in 2025 due to the decrease in global tomato processing, especially in China and California. 

2. The demand for ketchup in major consumer markets (Europe, North America and the Middle East) is stable, especially the recovery of the catering industry, which supports the upward price. 

3. Global economic uncertainty, exchange rate fluctuations and other factors may affect the trade flow, especially the market performance of exporting countries such as Iran and Egypt. 

In 2025, the global tomato processing industry will enter a period of deep adjustment. Under the theme of reducing production, technological innovation ability, geo-risk management and control level and regional flexibility of supply chain will become the key variables for enterprise differentiation.