Negotiations for the 2026 production and prices in the Northern Hemisphere are still ongoing, while the harvest in the Southern Hemisphere is nearing completion. According to the latest estimates from the World Processing Tomato Council (WPTC), global processed tomato output is expected to be below 40 million tons (currently estimated at 39.8 million tons), slightly lower than the final 2025 output of 40.3 million tons but significantly below the surplus production levels of 44.4 million tons in 2023 and 45.9 million tons in 2024.

AMITOM member country 

Bulgaria

Due to rising energy and fertilizer prices (+40%) and the planned renovation of the largest factory, Balkan, processing volume is expected to decrease by 50% to 20,000 tons by 2026. Current weather conditions are slightly wet but will not affect the planting work scheduled to begin in late April.

Egypt

The forecast remains unchanged at 800,000 tons.

France

Due to ongoing negotiations on pricing and production volumes, forecasts remain uncertain and are expected to decrease to 150,000 tonnes, potentially accompanied by a reduction in conventional planting areas, while organic acreage is projected to increase. Total planting area remains under 2,000 hectares. Persistent winter rains have left fields waterlogged, with unfavorable weather conditions. Transplanting was scheduled to begin this week but may be delayed until next week due to cold and windy conditions.

Greece

Weather conditions are favorable, and fields are ready. Planting begins this week in the south and next week in central regions. The primary concern is the impact of war on energy and fertilizer prices, despite some government support. Forecasts remain at 450,000 tonnes. Prices have been announced, averaging around €115/tonne (delivered to factory), with some variations.

Hungary

Current forecasts stand at approximately 70,000 tonnes. Nursery seedling work began last week.

Iran

There is currently high uncertainty, and communication is challenging. Iran has temporarily banned the export of tomatoes and tomato products. Further updates will be provided as information becomes available.

Italy

Northern Italy has ample water reserves (due to winter rains), and soil preparation is good. Forecasts remain unchanged from February (3 million tonnes). Negotiations between processors and grower associations over production volumes and economic terms faced delays and difficulties due to fluctuating energy costs (which affect not only agricultural fuel but also inputs like nitrogen fertilizers). Talks concluded on March 27, with an average reference price of €137/tonne (ex-field), including late-delivery premiums and service fees. Central and southern Italy are in better condition than last year, with sufficient water in many areas, though the Occhito Dam remains insufficient despite improvements.

As usual, processors and grower associations in the south await price finalization in the north before starting negotiations. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has raised concerns about diesel and fertilizer costs, complicating talks. The forecast has been revised to 2.8 million tonnes, bringing Italy’s total expected output to 5.8 million tonnes.

Portugal

Repeated storms caused flooding in major tomato-growing regions. Some fields along the Tagus River were damaged, leaving land submerged. Current spring weather is aiding the drying of remaining wet areas. Transplanting is set to begin on April 6. The estimate remains at 1.3 million tonnes. Seasonal prices, reported in media, average €106–107/tonne (ex-field).

Serbia

Conditions are favorable so far this season. If yields match last year’s ~90 tonnes/ha, processing volume is expected to reach 57,000 tonnes.

Spain

Abundant winter rains filled reservoirs in Andalusia and Extremadura, ensuring good water supply for the next four years. Weather is currently favorable, with planting starting last week in Andalusia and next week in Extremadura. Prices were agreed at ~€107/tonne (ex-field) or €115/tonne (delivered), but some farmers are demanding increases due to rising energy and fertilizer costs. Forecasts have been raised to 2.75 million tonnes.

Tunisia

No processing forecasts are available yet. The only data is planned planting area, estimated at ~15,300 hectares.

Turkey

Southern planting areas may slightly decrease, while Bursa remains stable or sees a small increase. Wet weather last week and expected rains next week may delay planting. Existing inventory (mainly canned paste) and unfavorable exchange rates have reduced exports. Production is estimated at 2.4–2.5 million tonnes. No public price data exists, but contract prices average 525 TRY/tonne (~€100, delivered). Farmers are pushing for higher prices due to rising costs, threatening reduced fertilizer use and lower yields.

Ukraine

Fields are ready, nursery work is on schedule, and transplanting is planned for late April. Fertilizer supply is adequate but prices are unreasonably high, and energy costs have risen. Forecasts may be adjusted downward in May based on field conditions. Frontlines remain unchanged from a year ago.

Other Northern Hemisphere Countries

California: Early-season planting began in February under ideal weather. March brought above-normal temperatures, benefiting crop growth. Brief planting pauses occurred but are not problematic. Lower-than-expected winter precipitation will reduce water allocations in some areas, though reduced planting area this season mitigates the impact. Price negotiations are ongoing.

Canada: Preliminary 2026 contract intentions are 586,000 short tons (~532,000 metric tons). Typical early-spring weather (temperature swings, rain, occasional snow, and frost) has prevailed. Planting starts in early to mid-May.

China: As of end-March, planted area for processing tomatoes is ~50,670 hectares. Forecasts are revised down to 5.92 million tonnes due to cautious farmer sentiment and lower planting enthusiasm.

Japan: Planting begins in late March, starting in the Tokai region. Forecasts are unchanged: 400 hectares and 24,000 tonnes of processing volume.

From XINJIANG TOMATO