According to the latest predictions from the World Processing Tomato Council (WPTC), global processed tomato production is projected to fall below 40 million metric tons in 2026, with an estimated output of approximately 39.8 million metric tons. This marks a slight decrease compared to 2025 figures, reflecting a significant retreat from the oversupply levels experienced in 2023-2024. The industry is currently in a phase of adjusting to excess inventory, which is expected to influence market dynamics in the upcoming years.
 

In terms of pricing, the export prices of large-pack tomato ketchup from China are anticipated to oscillate around the global average production cost of $0.90 to $1.10 per kilogram over the medium to long term. It is crucial for Chinese products to maintain prices slightly below those of Mediterranean competitors to uphold market competitiveness. This strategic positioning in pricing is essential for capturing market share and maximizing export potential.

As we move into the critical seedling stage for processing tomatoes in Xinjiang, it is noteworthy that the total seedling production in Changji City is expected to reach approximately 350 million plants. The transplantation process is set to commence at the end of April, marking a pivotal moment in the cultivation cycle. Timely and efficient execution of these agricultural activities will be instrumental in ensuring a successful growing season.

In a positive development for the industry, the autonomous region has officially issued a series of policy measures aimed at accelerating the high-quality development of the processed tomato sector. These policies, effective until the end of 2030, encompass a comprehensive approach from cultivation through processing, as well as market expansion and brand development. This systematic deployment of strategies is designed to bolster the industry’s growth trajectory and enhance its competitive edge.
 

However, it is essential to remain vigilant regarding potential risks. The frequency and intensity of sandstorm weather in Xinjiang during April have been notably high. Regions such as Bazhou and Eastern Xinjiang should closely monitor the adverse effects that strong winds and dust storms may have on spring sowing and facility agriculture. Proactive measures will need to be taken to mitigate these risks and ensure the integrity of the upcoming planting season.

In conclusion, while the outlook for global processed tomato production suggests a corrective phase, strategic pricing, favorable policy support, and meticulous agricultural practices will be key determinants of success in this evolving market landscape. Stakeholders are encouraged to stay informed and agile in response to both opportunities and risks in the industry.

From Freshco Industry ltd

Date.Apr.17,2026