According to the WPTC report, the global output of processed tomatoes is estimated to be 40.5 million tons in 2025, which is 11.5% lower than the 45.7 million tons in 2024. The output in the southern hemisphere is stable (3.05 million tons), and the northern hemisphere is expected to drop by 12% (37.5 million tons). This decline was mainly driven by California (9.25 million tons, down 7%) and China (6 million tons, down 42%). The output of AMITOM countries in the northern hemisphere is expected to be basically the same (17.15 million tons, down 0.4%), but the specific figure is uncertain because of undecided planting negotiations. The report on the potential impact of tariffs on the export of California ketchup to Canada does not directly mention tariffs. However, combined with the previously discussed US 25% tariff policy on Canada (implemented on March 4, 2025), the export of California ketchup (including products such as "Chip Dip") to Canada may face the following impacts:

Rising cost: California is expected to process 9.25 million tons of tomatoes. If some of them are made into ketchup and exported to Canada, the 25% tariff will push up the price. For example, if the cost of tomato sauce per ton is $1,000, the price after tariff will increase to $1,250, which may weaken competitiveness.

Declining demand: Canada may turn to local or duty-free countries (such as Mexico) for ketchup and reduce its dependence on California products.

Market adjustment: California producers may need to find new markets (such as Asia or Europe) or reduce profits to maintain their market share in Canada.

The possible reaction of "Chip Dip" in China market is combined with the previous analysis and report data: Output support: Although California's output has declined, 9.25 million tons is still enough to support the production and export experiments of innovative products such as "Chip Dip". China forecasts 6 million tons, down 42%, which may reduce local competition.

Cultural Challenge: The report did not mention the consumption habits of China, but previous analysis pointed out that ketchup is not the mainstream dip in China, and the acceptance of potato chips with ketchup may be limited.

Price sensitivity: If "Chip Dip" is imported from California, it is necessary to consider China's possible retaliatory tariffs (if implemented against the United States), and the superimposed transportation costs may make the price too high, making it difficult to attract price-sensitive consumers in China.

Opportunity: 

The report mentions that Iran's output is expected to rise to 2 million tons, which can be used for reference by its export strategy. If Heinz produces "Chip Dip" locally in China, it can avoid tariffs and adjust the taste (such as spicy), which may enhance the market potential. 

Key country developments

Italy (5.6 million tons): Delayed planting in the north may affect the early yield, and water resources in the south may be short or limit the increase in production. Target restocking may stimulate alternative demand for California products. 

China (6 million tons): The reduction of planting area may leave room for imported products (such as "Chip Dip"), but localization strategy is needed. 

California (9.25 million tons): Declining output and tariffs may force enterprises to optimize their export structure and innovate products such as "Chip Dip" or make a breakthrough. 

Conclusion 

In 2025, the global tomato processing market will face the dual pressures of declining output and trade barriers. The export of California ketchup to Canada will lose some competitiveness due to tariffs, and the success of "Chip Dip" in China market needs to overcome cultural and cost barriers. If Heinz adjusts flexibly (such as local production or taste innovation), it is still possible to find opportunities in specific markets. The uncertainty of weather and planting shown in the report reminds us that the actual output may fluctuate further, which will affect the market strategy.

FROM WPTC